Two weeks ago we launched Phil’s Future Five, a column designed to do something radio historically struggles with: move first. This week, we’re looking at the likes of Bruno Mars and Harry Styles.
Programmers tend to operate like a Portland driver at a four-way stop. Everyone sees the opportunity, but nobody wants to go first.
The goal of Phil’s Future Five is to identify records outside the Top 30 at Mediabase that are positioned to break before the email from your SVP arrives telling you it’s your turn to go through the intersection.
And in a PPM world where ratings are essentially a rolling set of weekly snapshots, even a small head start matters.
To the hundreds of programmers I’ve managed, I always say:
Test three. Add two. Own one.
Here are five songs outside the Top 30 but inside the opportunity.
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CHR / Hot AC: Bruno Mars – “Risk It All”
Current Mediabase Position: #40
Full disclosure: I am a Bruno Mars fanboy.
The rollout with iHeart and TikTok from inside a radio studio reinforces that Bruno songs sound great on the air. By the way, his studio had a much sexier vibe than any station I ever worked at. Very Venus Flytrap energy.
This nine-song album already has four records you could realistically be playing today.
For now, let’s start with Risk It All. Imagine Frank Sinatra fronting a mariachi band. That’s the vibe. Like several songs in Bruno’s catalog, this one is destined to become a wedding-season staple.
It’s also impossible to write about this record without pointing out that playing Risk It All is, in fact, not risking it at all.
Yes, that was literary gold. You’re welcome.
Why Move Now: Harry Styles is waiting in the wings
Risk Level: Very low
Prediction: Multi-format Top 10
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CHR: Harry Styles – “American Girls”
Current Mediabase Position: #43
Harry Styles just put on a promotional master class.
Netflix documentary. Crash Ryan Gosling’s monologue for a little SNL pre-promotion. Then SNL this week as both host and musical guest. Royal Court appearance. A long sit-down with Zane Lowe.
There are several songs from the new album you could play this week, and I’d honestly make room for a couple of them at CHR, Hot AC, and AAA.
But for the “but Phil we can’t play two Harry songs” crowd, American Girls is a nice warm-up. And let’s be honest: what American girl or almost 50-year-old bald former corporate programmer whose name rhymes with Bill Decker doesn’t want Harry Styles singing to them?
Those of us who are not Zoë Kravitz need something to hold onto.
Why Move Now: See above
Risk Level: Very low
Prediction: Top 10
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CHR: Harry Styles – “Ready, Steady, Go”
Current Mediabase Position: #211
If American Girls is the streamer, and Taste Back is the sleeper, then let’s add Ready, Steady, Go for some spring tempo.
Programmers spend half the year complaining they don’t have enough uptempo records. Harry just delivered one for you.
They also complain about push weeks, but I can’t help there.
Why Move Now: Nobody has ever said, “Your station sucks because you play Harry Styles.”
Risk Level: Medium today, low later on
Prediction: Top 15
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Alternative / AAA / CHR: Dominic Fike – “Babydoll”
Current Mediabase Position: #55
Not every opportunity starts with a brand-new release. Sometimes the audience brings a record back before radio realizes it’s happening.
“But Phil, that song is eight years old. My station plays new music.”
But Babydoll is currently out-streaming songs from Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, Ella Langley, and Alex Warren. So maybe “new” isn’t the right strategy all the time.
Sometimes a song reenters culture because the audience decides it’s time. When that happens, you can simply participate in it.
Why Move Now: A new music video dropped for the song on its eight-year anniversary
Risk Level: Medium
Prediction: Top 25
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Outside the Lines Pick of the Week
Rhythmic / CHR: T.I. – “Let Em Know”
Current Mediabase Position: #329 (CHR) / #36 (Rhythmic)
This record is being underplayed at Rhythmic and ignored at CHR, overlooking the fact that it’s living in people’s story feeds from ages 15 to 55 and doing close to nine million weekly in consumption.
The Pharrell-produced beat is infectious and immediate, but radio is overthinking this one.
What format is he? How relevant is he? Wasn’t he doing stand-up comedy?
Sometimes the smartest programming decision is also the simplest one: play the good songs people are already showing you they like.
If T.I. or Dominic Fike scares you, grab another song from Bruno Mars or Harry Styles.
They’re always safe, right?
The goal of Phil’s Future Five isn’t just to identify records that are going to chart. It’s to encourage programmers to evaluate music for what it is, what it sounds like, and how it connects with the audience in the moment.
Test three. Add two. Own one.
I’ll see you in two weeks with five more of Phil’s Future Five.
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